Working to predict: prevention as a counter against russian disinformation campaigns

Abstract

Russia opened an information front against Ukraine long before not only a full-scale invasion in 2022, but also before the occupation of part of Donbas and the annexation of Crimea in 2014. Ukraine was not ready and was losing the information war at the start. However, the Ukrainians mobilized quickly enough and managed to at least stabilize the situation. The head of Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate K. Budanov is sure that “now the Russians are losing the information battle”. A similar point of view had the former Director of GCHQ J. Fleming. But the war is still going on, the aggressor country is using new methods of struggle, so Ukraine needs an effective strategy to counter the aggressor and seize the initiative on the information front.